The pandemic didn’t help matters. BART ridership numbers dropped off a cliff after March 2020, and a prominent bond rating company recently warned that BART and other U.S. transit systems heavily reliant on fares are “expected to face sizable budget gaps” in years to come.
For as long as the Bay Area Rapid Transit system’s trains have screeched across the region, a feeling has lingered among its loyal and would-be riders that the transit service could be so much more.
It was initially envisioned as a system that would reach across the Golden Gate Bridge and into Wine Country while also stretching into the western neighborhoods of San Francisco. BART, however, has never quite lived up to the designs of its original muses — despite being, perhaps, the most influential manufactured system in the region.
The pandemic didn’t help matters. BART ridership numbers dropped off a cliff after March 2020, and a prominent bond rating company recently warned that BART and other U.S. transit systems heavily reliant on fares are “expected to face sizable budget gaps” in years to come.
I’s not just the stuff of dreams. Numerous studies and reports published throughout its first 50 years tease at this potential idealistic future for BART and its riders. But even as BART continues to plan for future expansion, achieving some version of that vision has never felt more tenuous than it does on the 50th birthday of the region’s most popular rail system.
Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic spiraled BART toward an uncertain future on many fronts.
Today, roughly 38% of BART’s pre-pandemic ridership has returned since April 2020, when it cratered to just 6%. The historic drop in ridership brought more urgent questions to the forefront about how BART will financially recover from a pandemic that has severely undercut fares, BART’s main pre-COVID revenue source, and how the system will reinvent itself.
Then there’s the lesson of history that many plans for expansion and development of the BART system materialized in times of unprecedented growth in ridership.
It means forecasts about the future remain muddy, more than two years out from the pandemic, and a firm picture of what the region’s new transportation patterns will be in a post-pandemic world have yet to fully come into sharp relief.
“Our role in the region is evolving,” Val Menotti, BART’s chief planning and development officer, said. “On remote work, we know that will be part of our future. But at what level, to me, it’s not clear, and it may not be clear for a couple of years.”
Still, even in these trying times, the region’s planners and transportation leaders view BART as an important linchpin that better connects the Bay Area’s disconnected rail and bus transit networks together to build a future “world-class rail system.”
Once-in-a-generation expansion projects, such as BART’s extension to Silicon Valley, are under way. The four-station expansion will take riders deep underground to Downtown San Jose and Santa Clara, at an estimated cost of $9.8 billion, when it tentatively opens at the end of this decade.
The pandemic also hasn’t stopped BART from planning for its second Transbay Tube. The transformational project, if realized, could create a new BART line and boost its capacity to transport people across the bay while better connecting the fragmented rail networks in the Northern California “megaregion.” It’s an issue that reached a critical point in 2016 when ridership peaked at all-time highs...
e-in-a-generation expansion projects, such as BART’s extension to Silicon Valley, are under way. The four-station expansion will take riders deep underground to Downtown San Jose and Santa Clara, at an estimated cost of $9.8 billion, when it tentatively opens at the end of this decade.
The pandemic also hasn’t stopped BART from planning for its second Transbay Tube. The transformational project, if realized, could create a new BART line and boost its capacity to transport people across the bay while better connecting the fragmented rail networks in the Northern California “megaregion.” It’s an issue that reached a critical point in 2016 when ridership peaked at all-time highs. Few, if any, meaningful details have been decided in that project, which has a placeholder completion date of 2040.
But pandemic or no pandemic, the extraordinary costs of building rail expansions in the Bay Area and the region’s dismal track record in delivering on these sorts of massive projects on time and under budget is key to why many of these plans remain pie in the sky.
It will have taken almost half a century for BART’s Silicon Valley extension to reach conception to completion. The second Transbay Tube will have taken longer and will require BART and the Bay Area’s patchwork of local governments to raise the tens of billions in funding it needs to become reality. //www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/bart-future-17428345.php
https://sf.streetsblog.org/2022/09/28/eyes-on-the-future-of-caltrain/
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